Which Countries Have the Best Chances of Winning at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games?

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In less than six months, the Paris 2024 Olympic Games will begin. Nielsen’s Gracenote Sports, a sports analytics company, has released its Virtual Medal Table (VMT) forecast. It predicts that the United States will win the most gold and total medals. The firm provides statistical analysis for global sports leagues and tracks major competitions leading up to the Olympics. It will update its forecast every month between now and the Olympics opening ceremony. 

First, second, and third place

Gracenote Sports predicts that the United States will win 37 gold medals and a total of 129 medals. If Team USA meets the prediction, it will be the eighth time it’s at the top. It is expected to win most of its medals in swimming and athletics. 

China is predicted to come in second place, with 35 gold medals and a total of 85 medals. This is four short of the medals it won in Tokyo. Table tennis, artistic gymnastics, weightlifting, diving, swimming, and shooting are China’s main medal-winning sports. It could give the U.S. competition as the winner of the most gold medals in Paris. 

Great Britain is predicted to come in third place with 17 gold medals and 64 medals in total. It has medal winners in at least 20 sports and will likely sustain its performance. It has won 60 or more medals in four consecutive Summer Olympic games. 

With the United States expected to do so well, Americans will be watching the Olympic Games closely. Now that online betting is legal in several states, they can place bets on who will win events and more. 

From fourth to tenth place

The host team is predicted to win 26 gold medals and 53 medals altogether. This is a good increase in total medals compared with the 33 it won in Tokyo. Japan is expected to win 17 gold medals but 56 in total. This is five fewer gold medals than it won in Tokyo. 

Australia comes next with 15 gold medals and 53 in total. Italy is predicted to win 13 gold medals and 48 in total. Completing the top 10 would be Germany, the Netherlands, and South Korea. 

Spectators from the top countries will be able to travel in comfort and watch the games. This wasn’t the case when the Summer Olympics in Tokyo were postponed to 2021 due to the Covid-19 pandemic. 

What could affect the accuracy of the predictions?

Russian and Belarusian athletes are banned from competing under their national flags at this Olympics. They are allowed to compete as neutrals. These athletes have been absent from international competitions since February 2022. As Russia is one of the best sporting nations in the world, this could affect the accuracy of the predictions. 

A good track record of predictions

Gracenote Sports has a good record when making predictions. At the Summer Olympics held in Tokyo, it correctly predicted the top 10 countries by total medals, although not in the exact order. It also named the top five countries in the Winter Olympics held in Beijing. It correctly predicted eight out of the top 10 teams and was also correct about Norway breaking the record for the total number of medals. 

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